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According to experts I talked to, the surge in hate spending can be attributed to various factors. They're aware prices aren't going back to 2019 levels, and given everything everyone's just been through, they may as well live it up. She told me that she often finds herself outraged by prices — and then ultimately succumbs to the forces of capitalism. It's easy to say you want to cut back on spending, given high prices, but when a friend asks whether you want to go shopping, it's hard to say no. Hart, the Illinois writer with a brand-new Stanley cup, sees some of her spending as a way to reclaim power.
Persons: Christ, Lydia Boussour, they're, everyone's, Jordan Hart, Hart, Boussour, , they've, it's, acclimated, It's, Claire Tassin, Tassin, There's, Taylor Swift, jonesing, people's, Ravi Dhar, Dhar, he'd, he's, I've, she'd, she'll, Stanley Organizations: Retail, Consumers, Morning, Center, Yale School of Management Locations: America, Illinois, YOLO splurging, Europe, York
Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, , ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, , Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal
Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.
Persons: , Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, , ” Robert Frick, , ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas
What to expect in Friday’s jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Don’t be surprised if Friday’s jobs report shows that February’s employment gains were far below those reported for January. In fact, it would continue a history-making stretch of labor market expansion. Friday’s jobs report could very well provide a more reliable read on what’s actually happening in the labor market than the jobs reports of recent months’ past, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told CNN. “And so, February might give us a better understanding of the underlying rate of job growth,” she said. What the other labor market data is showingOther economic data released this week reinforces the idea that the US labor market is cooling but remains on solid footing.
Persons: New York CNN — Don’t, Julia Pollak, autoworkers, what’s, hasn’t, Nixon, ” Ron Hetrick, Gus Faucher, stayers ”, Faucher, , ” Nela Richardson, outplacement, ” Andrew Challenger, Lydia Boussour, EY, Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, BLS, Labor, Boomers, ADP, Challenger, , Labor Department Locations: New York, US
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his script that it is not yet time to begin cutting interest rates on Wednesday in the first of two appearances this week on Capitol Hill. The Fed has taken interest levels to their highest in decades in a battle to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target. “The labor market remains relatively tight, but supply and demand conditions have continued to come into better balance,” Powell said. Job vacancies have declined, and nominal wage growth has been easing.”Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly said they will judge whether to begin lowering interest rates on the state of incoming economic data. In his testimony, Powell did acknowledge that interest rates are “likely” at their peak for this economic cycle.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, , Lydia Boussour, EY Organizations: Capitol, Financial Services, Labor Department, ADP, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s
New York CNN —The first jobs report for 2024, set to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday, is expected to underscore the strength of the US economy despite 11 rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. That can make the January jobs report among the trickiest to forecast, said Sarah House, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. Friday’s jobs report also will include the final annual benchmark review of payroll data for the 12 months that ended in March 2023. However, excluding January 2023, last month’s job cuts were the highest seen in January since 2009, according to Challenger. US worker productivity grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to a BLS report released Thursday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, he’s, Sarah House, Wells, “ We’re, , there’s, Boussour, EY, ” Boussour, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, haven’t, ” Andrew Challenger, people’s paychecks, ” Diane Swonk, , , Swonk Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor, Workers, Challenger, , BLS, KPMG, CNN Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, United States
That can make the January jobs report among the trickiest to forecast, said Sarah House, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. Friday’s jobs report also will include the final annual benchmark review of payroll data for the 12 months that ended in March 2023. Fresh data on job cuts and productivityOn Thursday, the layoff picture became clearer. However, excluding January 2023, last month’s job cuts were the highest seen in January since 2009, according to Challenger. US worker productivity grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to a BLS report released Thursday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, he’s, Sarah House, Wells, “ We’re, , there’s, Boussour, EY, ” Boussour, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, haven’t, ” Andrew Challenger, people’s paychecks, ” Diane Swonk, , , Swonk Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Workers, Challenger, , BLS, KPMG, CNN Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, United States
But with practically all of Wall Street in agreement that no changes will be made, investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s afternoon press conference where he’ll answer questions about his outlook for monetary policy. Conflict in the Middle East and the Red Sea in particular “poses a risk to global trade,” said EY Senior Economist Lydia Boussour on Tuesday. That’s a huge blow to trade: As much as 15% of global trade and 25%-30% of global container shipments transit through the waterway. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” said Boussour. The company reported earnings per share of $2.93, beating Wall Street expectations of $2.79.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell isn’t, we’ve, ” Johns, Laurence Ball, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Gordon, , There’s, Jay Powell, CNN’s Arlette Saenz, Joe Biden, , Brent, EY, Lydia Boussour, “ We’ve, Satya Nadella Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ” Johns Hopkins, , Commerce Department, West Texas Intermediate, International Monetary, Microsoft, Revenue Locations: New York, East, Europe, China, Jordan, Gaza, Suez, Iran
The firm’s monthly survey showed 107,000 jobs were added, well below the 145,000 estimate. “Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The ADP report comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for January, with consensus estimates for about a 180,000 gain in payrolls after December’s better-than-expected 216,000 increase. “The January jobs report will likely show that the labor market started the year on a solid note,” said Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist. The strong job market and U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter led the International Monetary Fund to boost its projections of global economic growth this year.
Persons: , Nela Richardson, December’s, Lydia Boussour, EY, , Jerome Powell, José Torres Organizations: ADP, Labor, Federal Reserve, Observers, Interactive, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: U.S, payrolls, hawkish,
Global inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and to 4.4% in 2025. “The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. That is not to say the global economy is without challenges. It also raises concerns about a revival of global inflation pressures as importers face surging shipping costs,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” she added.
Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Lydia Boussour, Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Eric LeCompte, LeCompte Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, . News, USA Locations: U.S, China, , Ukraine, Iranian, Suez, EY, India, Russia, East, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, , Brazil
The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2% for the month, as did the core index that omits food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the overall index remained unchanged at 2.6% while the core fell to 2.9% from 3.2% in November. The rise in the core index was the slowest since the spring of 2021. The core index is often cited by Fed officials as their barometer for inflation. “The meeting statement is likely to drop the hawkish bias from its forward guidance, but stop short of signaling rate cuts.
Persons: , Robert Frick, , Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Jeremy Schwartz, Ruchir Sharma Organizations: Federal, Economic, Fed, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Nomura Securities, Nomura, Aichi Amemiya
Extreme greed is back on Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
That’s all heralded the return of extreme greed to Wall Street. The S&P 500 is up 2.6% and the Dow is 0.6% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to score their sixth-straight winning sessions. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, which tracks seven indicators of market sentiment in the United States, tipped into “Extreme Greed” this week, marking a stunning turnaround from just a few months ago, when the index was in Extreme Fear territory. The idea of a soft landing (when inflation rates ease and the economy avoids recession) is likely playing a big part.
Persons: we’re, , Lydia Boussour, , Christopher Waller, Bill Gates, Henry Allen, Allen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Gross, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, ” Financial, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech Locations: New York, United States
Wage growth has slowed; average hourly earnings increased 4.1% year over year in October. That measure of wage growth has steadily slid from the almost 6% year-over-year increases in March 2022 and April 2022. Even with slowing wage growth, workers may finally be seeing their earnings catch up to the big spike in inflation. Year-over-year changes from BLS show there has been real wage growth in recent months, based on average hourly earnings outpacing CPI inflation. "I think if we continue to see wage growth moderate, hopefully inflation moderates even more, and we continue to see more workers getting more inflation-adjusted raises."
Persons: , Julia Pollak, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Bunker Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Economics, Wells, Wells Fargo Bank, BLS, North America Locations: Wells Fargo
Inflation in the United States has unquestionably cooled after hitting 40-year highs last year. Other key inflation gauges, the more comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and the wholesale-focused Producer Price Index, have moderated as well. A spike in gas prices and other components such as persistently high shelter costs have kept inflation elevated. The locally owned Walnut Group restaurant company closed its venerable Mediterranean Restaurant (fondly called The Med), the French bistro Brasserie Ten Ten and the newer Italian entrant Via Perla. Courtesy Tim Romano PhotographyAlthough Brasserie Ten Ten had a nearly two-decade run before its closure, it was like starting a brand new restaurant, Hessel said.
Persons: Marlon Pando, White Lotus, Tony Hessel, he’s, Jerome Powell, Brandon Bell, , , Lydia Boussour, United States —, Pando, , Price, Frederic J . Brown, Mark Zandi, Chase Castor, hadn’t, Holly Wade, Peggy Romano, Romano, Brasserie, Tim Romano, Hessel, ” Hessel, you’ve, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Disney, Mexican Grill, White, Getty, Moody’s, National Federation of Independent, Washington Post, NFIB Research, shocker, Walnut Group, Via Perla Locations: Minneapolis, New Jersey, Boulder , Colorado, United States, Mexican, Austin , Texas, Alhambra , California, AFP, Marion , Kansas, , Walnut
The job market continues to confound the expectations of economists with 336,000 jobs added in September, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 3.8%. “We expect that this era of interest rate hikes is nearing its end, likely allowing the jobs market to level out. Thursday’s report on weekly unemployment claims came in largely in line with estimates and consistent with a steady labor market. “Labor market conditions have substantially normalized from their peak tightness in early 2022,” Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist, said ahead of the jobs report’s release.
Persons: , Steve Rick, ” Lydia Boussour, EY, Steven Kyle, Cornell University’s Charles H Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, TruStage, ADP, Labor, Cornell University’s, Dyson, Applied Economics, Management, United Auto Workers
Washington, DC CNN —US retail sales picked in August, boosted by higher gas prices, as spending on other items grew modestly. Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation, rose 0.6% in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding sales at gasoline stations, retail spending advanced a more modest 0.2% in August from July. Retail spending increased across most categories, including at restaurants and grocery stores. Online retail sales in August were flat, after jumping in July due to Amazon’s Prime Day promotional event.
Persons: That’s, It’s, “ Fitch, , David Silverman, Goldman Sachs, there’s, Lydia Boussour, “ Encouragingly, Boussour Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, AAA, Federal Reserve, Fitch Locations: Washington, Libya, EY
The US jobs market stayed strong in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Truck transportation also saw employment fall by 36,700.Leisure and hospitality saw a job gain of 40,000 from July to August. From wage growth to an increase in labor force participation, various data points suggest the US labor market is still strong. There were 8.8 million job openings in July after 9.2 million in June, according to new Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS data released by BLS earlier this week. "We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue," Powell said. "Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Nick Bunker, Bunker, it's, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Jonathan Fisher, Fisher, Powell Organizations: payrolls, Service, SAG, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, North America, Washington Center for Equitable Growth Locations: Wall, Silicon, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Washington, DC CNN —The US economy grew more slowly in the second quarter than previously estimated — a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is attempting to cool demand to bring down price increases. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate, released Wednesday morning. The second estimate factored in greater consumer spending, government outlays and exports, compared with the initial estimate. Economic growth in the second quarter was mostly broad based, but there were some signs of weakened demand for goods purchases and imports. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of economic output, was revised slightly higher in the second estimate.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Barbie, Taylor Swift, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Biden, Lydia Boussour, Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Comerica Bank, The Commerce Department, Kansas City, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, United States, Wells Fargo, EY
Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP for the second quarter would be unrevised. Inventories were a small drag to GDP growth instead of adding 0.14 percentage point as estimated last month. It is expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. GDPINFLATION COOLINGThe government's measure of inflation in the economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases, rose at a 1.7% rate, revised down from the 1.9% rate estimated last month. An alternative measure of growth, gross domestic income, or GDI, rebounded at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Lydia Boussour, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, Gross, Reuters, Fed, ADP, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, EY, New York
Washington, DC CNN —US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. That’s a huge improvement from June 2022, when consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level on record and inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1%. “However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell.”Indeed, recent data continue to reflect inflation slowing. Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of output, and much of it hinges on the state of the labor market. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, , Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, EY
Washington CNN —The US economy picked up steam in the second quarter despite punishing rate hikes and still-high inflation, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economic growth in the second quarter was driven by business investment, government purchases, inventory investment and consumer spending, though at a much weaker pace than in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, grew at just a 1.6% rate in the second quarter, down sharply from a 4.2% rate in the first three months of the year. Nonresidential business investment rose sharply to a 7.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from a 0.6% rate in the beginning of the year. The GDP report showed that spending on structure slowed to a 9.7% rate in the second quarter from a 15.8% rate in the prior one.
Persons: , Lydia Boussour, , ” Shannon Seery, Seery, , , Diane Swonk, Thursday’s, Carol Schleif, Jerome Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Employers, Wells, Investment Bank, Manufacturers, KPMG, restrengthens Investors, BMO Family Office, Investors, Locations: EY
Retail sales rose in June for third straight month
  + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers rose in June for the third month in a row, in a subdued show of resilience from American consumers. Retail spending, which is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, rose 0.2% in June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Furniture sales jumped 1.4% in June from the prior month, while spending at department stores fell by 2.4% during the same period. Excluding sales at gasoline stations and on cars and parts, retail sales rose 0.3% in June from May. From a year earlier, overall retail sales rose 1.5% in June, the second-weakest pace since May 2020.
Persons: , Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, , Lydia Boussour Organizations: DC CNN, Retail, Commerce Department, , Employers, Federal Reserve, ” Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, EY
Interest rates are higher and so are prices, credit is drying up and there are signs that the labor market is finally softening. The problem is that no one, not even the Federal Reserve, knows how much longer the American consumer can keep on spending. Personal saving rates soared as a result, with US households amassing about $2.3 trillion in savings in 2020 and through the summer of 2021, according to Federal Reserve economists. Economists know that savings must be dissipating, but haven’t quite figured out just how much of that money is left. Just a few weeks later, economists at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington said just the opposite.
Persons: New York CNN — There’s, we’ve, , Torsten Slok, Lydia Boussour, Hanna Ziady, Xiaofei Xu, Beijing’s, Laura He, Wei Jianguo, Funflation, Beyflation — Taylor Swift, Fisher, don’t Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Governors, Apollo Global Management, Consumer, Reuters, China Daily, Fisher Investments, National Statistics Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Washington, United States, EY, Boussour, China, Beijing, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Swiftflation
Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.
A blowout jobs report and could make the Fed's job of tamping down inflation harder. The April US jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by of 253,000 and a fall in the unemployment rate to 3.4%. Wages are key to the Fed's inflation outlook, and April brought a 0.5% rise in average hourly pay – the biggest monthly increase in a year. "This is a market that's really going to struggle. "It's too early to assess the likelihood of an additional Fed rate hike in mid-June, but this latest jobs report will push the excessively data-dependent Fed towards further tightening – a mistake in our view."
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